There are a number of Democrat Primary elections this coming Tuesday, in preparation for the mid-term elections in November. One of the more interesting ones is for one of the Senate seats in Connecticut where incumbant Democrat Senator Joe Lieberman is facing a very strong challenge from Ned Lamont.

Lieberman is a long-serving Senator who is a moderate Democrat, attracting wide ranging support. However, a large number of Democrats have been attacking him over his stance on the Iraq war, and at present it is looking like he may lose the primary. In case this happens, he has gathered signatures so he register as an independent (the deadline for that is Wednesday).

It creates quite a bad situation for the Democrats. If Lieberman wins the primary, he is very likely to win the election in November and hold his Senate seat. However, if he loses the primary, the Republicans have a very good chance to win instead, making it nearly impossible for the Democrats to regain control of that chamber. If Lieberman goes ahead and stands in the election as an independent, then I just can't see how the Democrats could win it at all. It would be a classic vote-splitting situation, gifting the election to the Republicans.

But even if Lamont wins the primary and Lieberman doesn't stand as an independent, the Republicans have a very good shot at winning. Lamont has painted himself as extremely liberal in this campaign. While this makes him appeal to a large number of Democrat voters in the primaries, it could well make him impossible to elect in the real election.

Connecticut is a left-leaning state, but is it as left-leaning as it will need to be for the Democrats to win in this case?

Posted by Dave Bryant at 4:49 PM | Comments (1) | TrackBacks (1)