It's still almost a year until the first US Presidential primary, yet from all the media coverage about the candidates for the Democratic Party nomination, you would expect that it was only a few weeks away. Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards are all hard at it already, frantically trying to raise as much money as possible for when the campaign starts properly.

I have been wondering though, why are both Obama and Clinton jumping in the race this time in particular. Clinton seemed to be fairly clear (well, at least publicly) back in around 2002 that she was not interested in the 2008 election, and has only had just over a single term in any elected office thus far.

Obama is even more surprising. While he was a State Senator from 1996 until his election to the US Senate in 2004, he has only been a US Senator for 2 years, and is only 45 years old (very young for a Presidential candidate). In the event he does win the nomination, there will be plenty of claims that he is very inexperienced and that the main reason he is a candidate is due simply to his speech at the last national convention.

Edwards of course was the VP candidate last time around and so his candidature is much less of a surprise.

However, I think part of the reason that both Obama and Clinton are running is that the Democrats have a real shot at winning the White House next year. If neither ran, and a Republican won the election, then they could have a go at the 2012 election.

But what if another Democrat won instead? That Democrat would be up for re-election in 2012, so the next available opportunity would not be until 2016. To make matters worse, the frontrunner for the nomination in 2016 would of course be the incumbent Democratic Vice-President, possibly meaning that the next real opportunity wouldn't be until 2020 (unless the VP won as well, thus dragging it out further).

So if Obama and Clinton didn't run for the White House this time around, there is a real chance that their next real opportunity wouldn't be until 2020. Barack Obama will only be 59 then (by the time of the election), and so could still mount a real challenge (with the added benefit of 14 years experience in the US Senate). However, Hillary Clinton will be 73, and effectively a non-starter (yes Reagan was 73 when re-elected but he was far more popular than Clinton is ever likely to be). Once considering that, it is much less surprising that Clinton is a candidate - she could miss out entirely if she doesn't try this time around.

Of course one of them could stand in 2016 if they become the Vice-President in next years' election. In many recent campaigns though, the VP candidate has actually been one of the other candidates for the nomination.

I really cannot see Barack Obama winning the White House this time around, and in fact, I will be surprised if he wins the nomination. However, I would be much less surprised if he is made the Democratic VP candidate. Were he to become VP, he would be a much more credible Presidential candidate in the future.

Posted by Dave Bryant at 9:18 PM | Comments (0) | TrackBacks (0)